Warehouse Capacity: Is Europe Ready for Peak?

Every year, the same conversation happens during the same week of September. Someone runs the numbers on inbound volume against available pallet positions, and the answer comes back tighter than expected. Then the scramble starts.

The difference this year is that the market has less slack than it did twelve months ago, and the buffer that used to absorb a late decision is thinning out.

If your Q4 capacity plan is still a draft, this is the moment to finalise it.

Key Takeaways 

• European logistics vacancy could fall below 5% as new supply hits a nine-year low.
• Western corridors such as Brussels to Antwerp are close to full (2.33% vacancy). CEE has more room (up to about 8%) but demand is strong.
• Grid power is now a site-selection constraint, not a detail.
• Contracted space beats verbal commitments. Space secured in August costs less and offers more choice than space secured in November.

How Tight Is the European Warehouse Market Going Into Q4?

European logistics take-up has been recovering steadily. Through 2025, quarterly take-up stabilised between 5 and 6 million square metres, still below the 9.6 million square metre peak recorded in Q4 2021, but a clear improvement on a difficult 2024. Forecasts point to continued moderate growth.

The more interesting number is on the supply side. Only around 3.8% of total European logistics stock was under construction by mid-2025, and twelve-month rolling completions are expected to hit a nine-year low as the development pipeline stays muted. A growing share of completed space is already committed before it opens.

Prologis research estimates Europe needs roughly €150 billion of new logistics space just to meet current consumption levels. The forecast is that European vacancy could fall below 5% if supply pipelines stay constrained and economic growth holds, which would make Europe one of the tightest logistics markets in the world. Prologis also describes power as the new location factor in its 2026 outlook.

None of this is a cliff. It is a slow squeeze, which is precisely why it catches people out. Nothing dramatic happens until the week you need space and there is none available in the corridor where you need it.

Where Is the Pressure Concentrated: Western Europe or CEE?

The averages hide a lot. Utilisation rates remain high in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, leaving very little room for overflow inventory when peak-season volume arrives. In some Western European corridors, availability is effectively nil. Vacancy along Belgium’s Brussels-to-Antwerp corridor stood at 2.33% at the end of 2025.

Central and Eastern Europe reads differently. Vacancy runs higher, at up to around 8% in Poland and the wider CEE region, but absorption is enormously strong, driven by nearshoring from Western Europe. Poland recorded roughly 1.6 million square metres of gross take-up in Q1 2026, up around 40% year-on-year, with net take-up rising by approximately 75%. The vacancy rate stood at 7.2%, with new supply of about 650,000 square metres.

That combination matters more than either figure alone. This is not a market absorbing renewals. New leases and expansions made up a significant share of activity, which means the demand has genuine depth. The 捷克 和 罗马尼亚 have both posted strong annual take-up growth as well.

Read together, the picture is of a region with real available capacity and real competition for it.

Why Is Electricity Now a Warehouse Site-Selection Issue?

There is a newer bottleneck that has moved from a technical footnote to a genuine site-selection issue: electricity.

大多数欧洲电力网络都已接近或已达到其容量极限。随着配送中心的自动化程度日益提高，电力需求也超过了现有连接能力。为了确保现代化的自动化仓库拥有充足的电力供应，如今已将其视为至关重要的任务，而在一些市场中，电力供应是否充足决定了该地点是否具有商业可行性。.

For anyone planning capacity that involves automation, refrigeration, or electric vehicle charging infrastructure, power availability needs to be on the checklist alongside floor area and dock doors. It is not a detail that gets sorted out later. The same power constraint is shaping where life science manufacturers build, as we cover in 制药公司在CEE地区正在建设什么.

占领者实际上想要的是什么

Where demand is strong, it is concentrated on a fairly specific building profile. Occupiers have consistently favoured high-specification stock: clear heights of 10 to 12 metres, strong floor loading, generous yard depth, and a design that meets environmental certification requirements.

这不仅仅是因为偏好问题。当前市场动向的大部分反映了企业从扩张转向升级，从老旧、效率较低的建筑转向能够实现自动化、能源密集型运营的库存。预计净租赁需求不会在2027年前完全恢复，这正是因为一部分新增租赁空间被其他地方的空置空间所抵消。.

The practical implication: the weakest assets are becoming more exposed, and the best assets are getting taken. If your Q4 plan depends on finding well-specified space in a strong corridor at short notice, you are competing for the smallest part of the market. Browse CTP’s logistics and warehouse solutions for build-to-suit and ready-to-occupy options.

Five Questions to Answer Before Peak Season

1. 您的实际峰值容量预测是多少？不包括去年的数据，加上百分比是多少？

基于上年假设的峰值规划是溢流成本发生的模式。.

1. 你的缓冲器在哪里，在物理上呢？

超出需求范围的供水量是某个国家的供需关系，而不是解决方案。.

1. 您是否拥有足够的网格容量来支持您正在运行的应用程序？

如果您正在添加自动化或温度控制功能，请在确认其他任何事项之前先确认电源连接。.

1. 您的应急空间是否已经签订合同，还是只是在讨论中？

在销售量创九年低点的情况下，9月份的口头协议在11月份意义非常有限。.

1. 明年会是什么样？

If your peak requirement is becoming structural rather than seasonal, short-term overflow arrangements are an expensive way to solve a permanent problem.

Should You Secure Warehouse Capacity Early?

市场并未处于危机之中。需求增长适度，中东欧地区的空置率仍然可控，预计到2026年和2027年，租金增长将保持可控的年均2%左右。.

But the direction of travel is clear. Supply is constrained by rising construction costs, planning restrictions, and grid capacity limits, none of which can be resolved quickly. Nearshoring continues to anchor demand in Central and Eastern Europe as production networks diversify away from Asia. And occupier surveys suggest that 47% intend to increase their footprints, against just 4% planning to reduce them.

Securing space in August costs less and gives you more choice than securing it in November. That has always been true. It is simply more true in a market where the pipeline is thinning.

高峰期之前需要预留充足的产能吗？ 查看空房情况 across more than 270 locations in the CTPark Network, from the North Sea to the Black Sea.

Author – CTP Research Team
Last updated  – 16 October 2026